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  • EV江湖范泛談:希望換電模式全面普及是一種意淫

    • 原創
    • 2019-02-19 17:52
    • 來源:電車資源EV江湖
    • 發表評論 1

    摘要:蔚來、北汽新能源及時空電動都在全力推換電模式,但理想的豐滿與現實的骨感總是相伴而行,換電模式自2011年起由國家電網主導在杭州和青島試運營,結果證明不可行,至少不可能大范圍推廣。

    【文/電車資源EV江湖 范永軍】近年來,隨著新能源汽車每年保持50%以上增長,車樁矛盾比較突出,新能源汽車充電時間長,使用時效較燃油車低,蔚來汽車、北汽新能源及時空電動都在全力推換電模式,使新能源汽車換電模式這一沉寂了五六年新能源汽車能源補給模式再次站到新能源汽車發展的前臺。幾分鐘完成換電,且可以用谷電集中對電池進行充電,在時間便利和經濟上似乎都有優勢,不少換電站系統提供商還在鼓動有關政府全力支持換電站的建設。但理想的豐滿與現實的骨感總是相伴而行,換電模式自2011年起由國家電網主導在杭州和青島試運營,結果證明不可行,至少不可能大范圍推廣。原因如下:

     一、成本太高

     1、電池成本太高。換電模式下1臺車需1.3-1.4組電池與之匹配,且多配的電池沒有任何政府補貼。動力鋰電池的成本占純電動汽車的成本50%左右,再乘以1.3-1.4,極大增加了新能源汽車的成本。在沒有政府補貼的情況下,新能源汽車一次性采購成本已遠高于傳統汽車,再加上增加電池成本的攤銷則更高,其經濟性不可行。

     2、電池箱體及接插件成本大增。因換電需對電池箱體非常頻繁的拆卸,箱體及接插件磨損非常嚴重,而動力鋰電池組的防水防塵等級需達到IP67,這對箱體和接插件的要求特別高,箱體的造價是插電箱體造價的7倍左右,接插件的成本是插電箱體接插件的6倍左右,成本高昂。一套純電動大巴34個電池箱體,換電箱成本在17萬元左右,插電箱在2萬多元左右。高壓接插件換電一個3600多元,插電式高壓接插件僅600多。

    3、換電站建設成本高。換電站在室內操作,需有機械人或機械手來完成換電過程,換電站還得建大型充電站用于對換下來的電池集中充電,單個換電站建設成本高,不同車輛和不同電池又沒有適配性和通用性,注定了蔚來的換電站只能為蔚來汽車服務,北汽的換電站只能為北汽的車服務,時空的換電站也是如此。換電站不能為所有的新能源汽車服務,建設成本高,服務對象特定,沒有量的支撐,沒有經濟性可言。

     二、前置條件根本不具備

    1、在實現換電模式首先要實現車電分離,即車身和動力電池分屬不同的產權主體,車主只租換電站的電池使用,才能正常換電,但在目前國家補貼政策下,車跟電池是一一對應的關系且強制公告及核查要求,車電分離這一前條件就行不通。

    2、換電模式要求電池和車型全部標準化,否則就無法適配。目前動力鋰電池從正極材料上的不同就有磷酸鐵鋰、三元鋰、錳酸鋰和鈦酸鋰等四大類,每大類又有不同的小類,尤其是三元鋰電;從單體形狀劃分又有圓柱型、方型和軟包電池三大類,每一大類又有眾多少類。即使要求在電池包容量和箱體上實現了標準化,各家車廠車型對電池容量要求,電池排布位置,整車控制策略都不相同,這種要求標準化的前置條件目前也不具備。

    3、誰來持有這批重資產?換電模式下,電池是最重的資產,關鍵是電池在目前的技術條件下,真正的使用壽命的問題,電池廠家承諾的質保五年也好、八年也罷,很多都會成為一張空頭支票,只是一銷售技巧而已,一方面能保證實實在在能用上五年的電池供應商真的不多,另一方面原來一百五十余家動力電池供應商五年后能存活下來將不到五十家,已經壯烈“殉國”的電池供應商的售后承諾承兌現嗎?在這一前提下誰來持有這份重資產,國家電網還是融資租賃機構?誰也不傻!

    三、綜合時間耗費并不經濟

    新能源汽車換電過程不到十分鐘,但因城市換電站數量有限,一輛新能源汽車從準備去換電開到換電站可能需跑上數十公里,遇到交通堵塞可能在路上就要花費數小時,全程時間并不會比充電時間短。另外,為換電而來回耗費的行駛里程也大大減少了換電后正常續航,屬無效空駛。

    四、分布式充電站及快充技術的發展已基本能滿足新能源汽車的充電需求

    國家對充電站建設和運營的鼓勵與支持,每年新增的充電站與充電樁基本能滿足我國新能源汽車充電需求,加上快充樁與快充技術的發展,半小時充電80%已是基本的技術要求。只要實現所有的充電樁互聯互通,新能源汽車充電將大便利。

    五、結論

    換電模式將不會成為中國新能源汽車能源補給的主流模式,但可以作為補充,希望換電模式成為主流補電模式只不過是一種意淫而已。

    (來源:電車資源EV江湖 范永軍)

    本文由電車資源【EV江湖】作者撰寫,觀點僅代表個人,不代表電車資源。

    電車資源自媒體平臺——EV江湖致力于打造新能源汽車產業生態與消費生態結合的新模式自媒體平臺。我們以嚴謹而開放的態度,誠邀各路豪杰,探討新能源汽車發展之路,見證產業發展一路風云(點擊進入EV江湖),聯系電話:0755-82433081 ,微信:314585903。

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    • 2019-02-20 02:31
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