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  • 中國發展新能源汽車不可回避的三大現實問題

    • 2019-06-11 15:30
    • 來源:電車資源 岳紹雪

    摘要:中國發展新能源汽車到底有沒有未來?這個問題,在這條道路中走著的每一個同仁可能都沒有確定的答案。

    中國發展新能源汽車到底有沒有未來?這個問題,在這條道路中走著的每一個同仁可能都沒有確定的答案,也許總在不斷的自我質疑中確信,又在確信中質疑。但我們不得不承認,在電動汽車產品本身存在的一些問題之外,中國發展新能源汽車還存在一些非常現實的問題。

    一、城市擁堵問題

    6月6日,國家發改委一則關于穩消費的新政令諸多人興奮,這則新政策針對汽車和家電等行業(相關閱讀:重大利好!各地不得對新能源汽車實行限行、限購)。新能源汽車方面,大力推動新能源汽車消費使用,各地不得對新能源汽車實行限行、限購,已實行的應當取消;鼓勵地方對無車家庭購置首輛家用新能源汽車給予支持;鼓勵有條件的地方在停車費等方面給予新能源汽車優惠。這個政策可能帶來的直接影響,即是新能源汽車銷量的攀升。

    近幾年,我國一線大城市的經濟獲得了快速發展,而隨著私人機動車的擁有量飛速增長,交通供需矛盾日益突出,加劇了城市道路的擁堵程度。為此,北京、廣州等大城市均出臺了限行、限購政策,但很顯然,城市擁堵的問題并沒有得到有效解決。

    中國發展新能源汽車不可回避的三大現實問題

    其實就筆者個人理解,除了交通網絡的問題外,城市擁堵的形成的主要原因是資源的集中化。以北京為例,有人戲稱,“北京有三寶,霧霾柳絮沙塵暴”,怎么看,北京都不算是一個宜居城市,但其長居人口位居全國前三,主要原因是北京集中了政治、經濟、文化的優勢資源。我們假設一種可能,北大或者清華搬遷,北京還會這么炙手可熱嗎?

    說到城市的擁堵問題,很多人可能都會想到加強公共交通體系建設,甚至有專家表示提高用車成本。實際上這些方式既不治標、也不治本,不能一邊刺激消費,一邊阻礙消費者使用產品,消費者買車回家不是為了放在停車庫。

    個人認為,對資源進行合理配置,進行區域調配將有助于解決中國經濟發展過程中的很多現實問題,但這種可能性微乎其微。也許在遙遠的未來,私家車將告別歷史舞臺,公共交通體系將成為主流,擁堵將成為一個模糊的概念,但就現階段而言,如何在推廣應用新能源汽車的同時,不給城市交通帶來更大壓力是必須思考的問題。

    二、電網能否承受大量負荷?

    電動汽車行業快速發展的同時,也需要解決巨大的電能需求問題。已有的公共配電網和用戶側配電設施在當年建設時并沒有考慮電動汽車充電需求,而現在的快速發展導致部分地區的局部配電網產生了增容改造的需求。我們知道,僅僅是“煤改電”的暖氣工程,就為現在的供電體系造成了負擔。

    中國發展新能源汽車不可回避的三大現實問題

    另一方面,電動汽車充電設施是屬于大功率、非線性負荷的設備,且布局分散,會產生很高的諧波電流和沖擊電壓,并存在用戶私拉電線和飛線充電等問題,給電網公司配電側管理帶來了較大挑戰。

    實際上,基于中國“基建狂魔”的特性,在有需要的情況下,我們也相信電網的改造能夠適應電動汽車的發展。但未雨綢繆,政府有關部門在制定政策時要更多考慮新能源汽車對電網負荷帶來的需求,盡量的為即將到來的電氣時代做好準備,避免現階段的資源浪費。

    三、退役后的動力電池去哪里?

    2014年我國新能源汽車開始快速增長,時至今日,第一批規模化的動力電池已瀕臨淘汰。2018年,工信部曾在發布的關于《新能源汽車動力蓄電池回收利用管理暫行辦法》中要求,汽車生產企業應承擔動力蓄電池回收的主體責任。

    中國發展新能源汽車不可回避的三大現實問題

    但在實際操作過程中,問題重重,電池回收過程的復雜技術成為其發展慢的首要原因;即便是電池被回收,但再生利用效率仍然很低。另外由于目前各廠家、車型的電池規格并不統一,在拆解上也存在較大困難。也有業內人士表示,電池回收行業具有高確定性回收前景,但這個行業至今未能爆發。

    小結:

    在大環境的影響下,新能源汽車行業無論是數量還是質量均取得空前發展,行情大好。我們看好它的未來,又免不了憂心忡忡,恐是竹籃打水一場空。實際上,一個產業的發展除了其本身產業鏈的發展之外,還依賴于健康、完善的產業環境,建立一個產品全生命周期的回溯體系,才有可能形成一個可持續發展的產業生態。否則哪怕表面發展的再繁花似錦,也不過是空中樓閣。

    (文/電車資源 岳紹雪)

    版權聲明:本文版權為電車資源所有,轉載請務必注明來源(電車資源)及作者。

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