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  • “三電”行業盈利承壓,新能源車企如何實現降本提質

    • 2019-07-22 09:48
    • 來源:普華永道思略特

    摘要:新能源汽車產業鏈整體呈現三大關鍵發展特征:供應商掌握話語權,整車廠成本控制能力受到挑戰;未來零部件行業將整體出現產能過剩趨勢,但優質資源依舊不足;零部件廠商的盈利情況普遍優于整車廠。

    三電.jpg

     新能源汽車重構了并行于傳統汽車的產業鏈條,產業鏈整體呈現三大關鍵發展特征:供應商掌握話語權,整車廠成本控制能力受到挑戰;未來零部件行業將整體出現產能過剩趨勢,但優質資源依舊不足;產業鏈大部分利潤向上游轉移,零部件廠商的盈利情況普遍優于整車廠。隨著新能源補貼退坡,整車廠生存境遇將受到挑戰,成本控制、品質升級成為迫在眉睫需要解決的關鍵問題。可以預見,在“下半場的競爭”中,對于產業鏈有強把控能力的車企將會脫穎而出。

    具體而言,新能源車的電池、電機電控等核心零部件占據了總成本的約60%。新能源車企在“三電”領域進行了積極的布局。在補貼退坡的背景下,“三電”行業毛利水平受到較大挑戰,該趨勢在短期內將有所延續。“三電”行業將在強壓下迎來變革——技術更加成熟、成本控制更強、細分技術領域逐漸分化。

    那么,對整車廠而言,在產業鏈整體利潤承壓的大趨勢下,“三電”領域的布局策略如何調整才能滿足“降本提質”的關鍵訴求?

    動力電池盈利承壓

    新能源動力電池占據新能源整車總成本近45%,是最大成本單元。近年來,動力電池市場集中度進一步升高,行業呈現“強者愈強”的趨勢。從頭部企業的毛利表現來看,行業整體呈現較為顯著的利潤承壓趨勢。

    主要原因包括:

    1. 補貼退坡

    2019年,新能源國家政策出臺,補貼額度降低,補貼門檻變高。在退補同時,補貼結算期較長,增加了下游整車廠的資金壓力,導致下游車企利潤承壓,降本壓力向上游傳導。而電池占據新能源汽車總成本的約45%,電池廠商承接主機廠的成本壓力,電池價格受到下游擠壓,為電池廠商盈利性帶來負面影響。 

    2. 產能過剩

    電池企業持續加大固定資產投入擴充電池產能,行業整體產能過剩問題預計將在中短期內持續存在。過去三年,中國新能源乘用車動力電池廠商產能利用率(裝機需求量/規劃總產能)維持在較低水平,預計短期未來將保持在約50%的較低水平,產能過剩問題將持續存在。以國內一家領先的動力電池企業為例,其動力電池業務產能利用率由2015年的97%下降到2018年的87%,一定程度反映出行業整體產能過剩的問題。

    3. 原材料價格上升

    在鋰電池價格快速下滑的同時,碳酸鋰鹽、氫氧化鋰等鋰電池原材料價格不斷升高,進而導致電池廠商利潤承壓。近年來新能源車市場的快速發展,帶動碳酸鋰鹽、氫氧化鋰等新能源車電池核心原材料需求增加,導致鋰電池核心原材料價格上漲。而電池廠商在受到下游整車廠在價格方面的擠壓同時需承受原材料成本增長,電池廠商整體利潤承壓。

    電機/電控盈利承壓

    在補貼退坡的大背景下,電機/電控行業也出現了利潤下滑的趨勢。從第三方電機/電控上市企業年報顯示,行業毛利水平整體出現下滑,行業整體告別高利潤時代。電機/電控行業毛利率降低,主要是受補貼退坡、產能過剩、競爭加劇、原材料成本上升等要素影響,此文中我們重點討論后三個因素。

    1. 產能過剩

    2016-2018年期間,電機/電控行業內出現多起較大規模的產能擴充事件。根據部分公司披露的公開信息粗略估算,至2020年電機/電控產能超過280萬套(其中包括2016年已有產能約80萬套,及2016-2020新增產能約200萬套),而2020年電機電控總需求預計是約200萬套,行業有較為顯著的產能過剩風險。

    2. 競爭加劇

    自供及合資供應比例顯著上升:規模較小的第三方電機/電控供應商議價能力受到挑戰。就合資供應模式來說,發揮專業第三方研發制造優勢,同時借助主機廠產品質量管理體系優化供應鏈,短期內受到OEM的青睞。掌握技術優勢的電機/電控企業是整車廠主要的合資對象。

    外資廠商搶占市場:國外第三方電機/電控制造商憑借在傳統燃油車、汽車電子領域的競爭優勢,占據部分國內高端乘用車份額。外資產商的優勢主要體現在三個方面:一是規模優勢,二是成本優勢,三是技術優勢。

    3. 采購成本上漲

    電機方面,從2016年-2018年底,電機方面的原材料價格出現顯著的價格上漲,直接導致電機成本的大幅上漲。

    電控方面,IGBT 模塊是功率變換模塊的核心器件,但其具有極高的的技術壁壘,主要依靠進口。從海關總署公布的進口價格來看,2016-2018年價格的復合增長率達20%。進口價格的上漲使得電控生產商的成本壓力進一步增加。

    三電領域布局策略的探索與思考

    新能源進入后補貼時代,整車企業在進行上游布局時,對“降本增效”的訴求將進一步強化。就“三電”零部件而言,短期內合資合作仍是主流,車企為降低風險會尋找多元合作伙伴,并同時參與相關技術研發。中長期看,“三電”行業整體毛利下滑,供應商企業會進一步優化成本結構,提高生產效率,同時推動“三電”產品的標準化、平價化。因此,對于車企而言,中長期看,除少數頭部車企自建自用外,多數車企會逐漸由合資轉向開放采購模式。

    電池方面:隨著技術提升與生產成本的降低,車企的布局模式會有以下幾個轉變趨勢:

    自建模式:具備資金和技術實力的車企會加大自建力度,并專注研究下一代產品,尋求行業話語權的掌握。

    合資模式:多元化伙伴選擇,更具成本及技術優勢的日韓電池企業成為潛在合作對象;同時車企將進一步提高對技術的掌控度,該模式作為產品平價前的主流方案。

    開放采購:在油電平價后,該模式將成為主流方案。

    電機/電控方面:目前我國供應商企業主要掌握電機/電控的集成技術,現階段產品同質化較為嚴重。未來,電機/電控的上游細分領域會進一步分化。車企布局會有以下轉變趨勢:

    行業整體趨勢上看,隨著電機/電控產品技術更加成熟,車企會由自建+合資的布局模式逐步轉向合資+外采模式上轉變。布局模式上更加多元化和輕資產化,降低采購成本的同時,減少自有資產投入帶來的風險。

    細分領域的相關布局會進一步增加,例如電控中的關鍵零部件IGBT。頭部車企會加大力度自建研發,尋求行業的話語權掌控;多數車企會通過合資模式,尋求關鍵技術的掌握和成本的把控。

    思略特認為,后補貼時代,中國新能源車企會在逆境中探索新的生存之道。在這個過程中,車企應該清晰自身戰略訴求,明晰自身資源實力,同時結合行業關鍵發展趨勢,尋求最有利于“降本提質”的產業鏈布局方案,在新能源“下半場”的競爭中,脫穎而出。

    “三電”行業盈利承壓,新能源車企如何實現降本提質

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